Labour succession

Vernon Small has a good article on Thursday’s dominion Post (Clark’s leadership heir not apparent, B5) about who might replace Helen clark if Labour looses the 2008 election. Make no mistake, if Labour looses in 2008 Clark will go. There will be no appetite for returning her in 2011. Small and I both agree there are only two choices- Phil Goff and Steve Maharey. Goff is the more competent of the two (and is a strong preformer in the House), and more centrist (which could hurt him in a very left wing caucus). Maharey is the favourite of the left of the party, and appears to be the more influential of the two  at present. I’d tip Maharey over Goff, and I hope Maharey gets it, as I can’t see him beating an incumbent Key in 2011, particularly if the economy does well. Although National is polling well, it is too early to write Labour of (although with the pledge card and Election Finance Bill Anti-Free Speech Bill, I wonder why anyone would still trust Labour). We can not take victory next year for granted. If National looses, Key would probably go (although a arguement can be made for keeping him as National has had four leadership changes in the last 10 years, and another one might create an image of an unstable party). English would be likely to return to the leadership.

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One Comment on “Labour succession”

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