I’m back again

Hi readers (if there are any left), its been three months since I last posted on this blog, largely due to not being at uni, where my Internet access is, and spending time working and other things. But now its an election year, and I’m back at university, and I’m back blogging.

The latest polls should be very pleasing to any right wing conservative New Zealander. In the last few days we have a Colmar Brunton poll giving National a 19 point lead. We also have a Roy Morgan poll which also has National 19 points ahead. Even better still a Fairfax media-Neilson poll has an astonishing 23 point gap. And as David Farrar points out, these polls occured before the Owen Glenn story.

Lets now take a look at what would be the case if the election was now, instead of 7 months away. A realistic future parliament (by averaging the results of these polls and asuming no electorate seats change hands, and National wins the new seat of Botany) a future Parliament would look like this:
National 67 (asuming National stands candidates in all General electorates and 5 list only candidates, all except one candidate will be elected)
Labour 41 (good punishment for the Electoral Finance Act)
Greens 8 (up 2, but won’t matter much)
Maori Party 4 (including one overhang, two if they get an extra electorate seat, which is possible if Maori are amongst those deserting Labour, and especially if Turei (Green) doesn’t stand in Te Tai Tonga)
United Future, ACT, Progressive 1 each (both Dunne and Anderton as overhangs)

National of course won’t need any coalition partners.

Explore posts in the same categories: National Party, Polls

2 Comments on “I’m back again”

  1. […] the Nicholas O’Kane blog The New Zealand Conservative Blog « I’m back again […]

  2. […] I am suspicious that the poll overrates the Maori Party’s support, with it (according to Farrar) showing the weighted party vote for all Maori being 33% for the Maori Party. Given that Maori make up close to 15% of the population, that is 5% of the party vote, but in the Maori Party is polling well below that in most polls. […]

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