More good polls

These polls are actually slightly good for Labour, as they actually put it above 35%. There has just been a TV3 poll and a NZ Herald Digipoll. The results of these two polls averaged out are as follows (for the seats calculation I assume no general electorates change hands, National wins the new seat of botany and the Maori Party win all Maori seats):
National 52.75% (65 seats- can govern alone)
Labour 35.75% (44 seats)
Greens 5.7% (7 seats)
NZ First 2.55% no seats
Maori Party 1.75% (7 seats, 5 overhang)
Act 0.7% (1 seat)
United 0.45% (1 seat, lucky to avoid an overhang)
Progressive 0.05% (1 overhang seat)
Note the impact of the Maori Party overhang on making National’s majority only 2 seats. A 4% swing to Labour could see it back into Government. The Maori Party winning all Maori seats creating a big overhang, as I said yesterday, could create real problems for National.

Colin Espiner believes part of the reason for Labour’s poor poling maybe the costs of food, petrol, and electricity increasing, together with rising interest rates putting the squeeze on household budgets. This may be the case, and if so it is unfair to Labour as it has no control over these things. However, I still look forward to Labour loosing the election, no matter what reason people choose to vote them out. David Farrar has the latest public poll summary, and you can see that National has led Labour consistently since the beginning of last year, so National’s current good polling is stable and clearly not the result of a one of occurrence, like its post Orewa speech bounce was, and thus is more likely to last. However, there is still 8 months to go until the election, and Labour will come out with every bribe and dirty trick it can to win the election, and a lot can happen during that time, so although we can be confident National is more likely to win than Labour, we can not be certain of a National win.

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One Comment on “More good polls”


  1. […] As I’ve said in a few posts before the Maori Party could have a big overhang at the next Parliament, and this could be crucial when it […]


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