More polls

TV One and TV Three both came out with new opinion polls last night, and both had opposite stories. TV One had National’s vote increasing to a massive 54%, with a 19% gap, while TV3 had only a 10% gap. TV One polls have a history of overestimating support for National, and as no other poll has ever put National at 54%, I am very suspicious that it is overestimated in this poll. Full poll results can be seen here. You can get a better picture by looking at a range of polls, rather than relying on one. Averaging the results (including the last Roy Morgan Poll, and deducting 2% of National and adding it to Labour from the One news poll (to cancel out bias to National) gives:
National: 49% (61 seats)
Labour: 36.5% (46 seats)
Greens: 6.2% (8 seats)
Maori Party: 3.0% (7 seats)
NZ First: 2.8%
ACT: 1.0% (1 seat)
United: 0.3% (1 overhang seat)
Progressive: 0.2% (1 overhang seat)
National, despite being as high as 49%, can barely govern with ACT and United Future. A one seat swing to labour could see a LPGM coalition. One of Nationals big problems is that altjough it is polling at stratospheric levels, it has so few coalition partners it can barely govern. The scenario above illustrates the point.

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