The stench of death

The stench of death is beginning to surround the doomed Labour Government, as it gets no poll bounce from its election bribe budget. Pollafter poll after poll have come out in the last few days showing the same thing. The Government is on its way out. Averaging the three polls out (a NZ Herald Digipoll, TV3 News Poll and Colmar-Brunton poll, and adding 5 points to Labours total, deducting the same of National for the Colmar-Brunton due to its pro-National bias) gives the following result (assuming no general electorate seats change hands and all Maori seats won by the Maori Party):
National 49.83% (63 seats, and almost half the vote. Good outcome)
Labour 35.07% (looses 5 seats, bringing its total down to 45)
Greens 6.4% (8 seats, a nice 2 seat pickup and well clear of 5%)
NZ First 3.27% (two of the polls placed it at 4%. 5% is within sight)
Maori Party 2.4% (it’s 4 seat overhang gives it more MPs than it should)
ACT 0.9% (Rodney Hide stays, but no second seat for Roy or Douglas)
United Future 0.2% (oh dear! Peter Dunne becomes an overhang)
Progressives 0.0% (in all three polls Anderton gets a big fact 0%)
I got the results for the minor parties (Green 6.4%, NZ First 1.9%, Maori 2.2%, ACT 0.7%, and United Future 0.4%) by e-mailing Audrey Young.

When the calculations are re-done to include Winston peters regaining Tauranga (a serious possibility now that Clarkson is retiring), New Zealand First is on 4, gaining 2 from National (now on 61) and 2 from Labour (now on 43). In the first scenario, National gets to choose between Hide and Dunne to enter into a coalition with, while National needs both second scenario.

The important thing to remember about this poll is that it is now June. There is not much time left for Labour to recover. And that is not the end of the bad news for labour. As David Farrar points out, John Key is poling ahead of Helen Clark as preferred PM, something which didn’t happen in 1999, indicating that as well as Labour being unpopular, National is popular. And all three polls were taken after the budget election bribes tax cuts, which have failed in their purpose of giving a poll bounce to Labour (does anyone really believe there would have been tax cuts if Labour was polling around 50% and National 35%). Having blown most of its election bribe fundsurplus on tax cuts, with no results, things are starting to look desperate for Labour. Expect the desperation to be shown with more election bribes. However, with the latest one failing to have an impact, it will all be, like the budget tax cuts, too little, too late. The stench of death is starting to surround this Government, and as a New Zealander who despises Labour and its corrupt ways, it smells bloody great.

Explore posts in the same categories: Polls

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