Archive for the ‘Polls’ category

The stench of death

June 5, 2008

The stench of death is beginning to surround the doomed Labour Government, as it gets no poll bounce from its election bribe budget. Pollafter poll after poll have come out in the last few days showing the same thing. The Government is on its way out. Averaging the three polls out (a NZ Herald Digipoll, TV3 News Poll and Colmar-Brunton poll, and adding 5 points to Labours total, deducting the same of National for the Colmar-Brunton due to its pro-National bias) gives the following result (assuming no general electorate seats change hands and all Maori seats won by the Maori Party):
National 49.83% (63 seats, and almost half the vote. Good outcome)
Labour 35.07% (looses 5 seats, bringing its total down to 45)
Greens 6.4% (8 seats, a nice 2 seat pickup and well clear of 5%)
NZ First 3.27% (two of the polls placed it at 4%. 5% is within sight)
Maori Party 2.4% (it’s 4 seat overhang gives it more MPs than it should)
ACT 0.9% (Rodney Hide stays, but no second seat for Roy or Douglas)
United Future 0.2% (oh dear! Peter Dunne becomes an overhang)
Progressives 0.0% (in all three polls Anderton gets a big fact 0%)
I got the results for the minor parties (Green 6.4%, NZ First 1.9%, Maori 2.2%, ACT 0.7%, and United Future 0.4%) by e-mailing Audrey Young.

When the calculations are re-done to include Winston peters regaining Tauranga (a serious possibility now that Clarkson is retiring), New Zealand First is on 4, gaining 2 from National (now on 61) and 2 from Labour (now on 43). In the first scenario, National gets to choose between Hide and Dunne to enter into a coalition with, while National needs both second scenario.

The important thing to remember about this poll is that it is now June. There is not much time left for Labour to recover. And that is not the end of the bad news for labour. As David Farrar points out, John Key is poling ahead of Helen Clark as preferred PM, something which didn’t happen in 1999, indicating that as well as Labour being unpopular, National is popular. And all three polls were taken after the budget election bribes tax cuts, which have failed in their purpose of giving a poll bounce to Labour (does anyone really believe there would have been tax cuts if Labour was polling around 50% and National 35%). Having blown most of its election bribe fundsurplus on tax cuts, with no results, things are starting to look desperate for Labour. Expect the desperation to be shown with more election bribes. However, with the latest one failing to have an impact, it will all be, like the budget tax cuts, too little, too late. The stench of death is starting to surround this Government, and as a New Zealander who despises Labour and its corrupt ways, it smells bloody great.

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More polls

April 21, 2008

TV One and TV Three both came out with new opinion polls last night, and both had opposite stories. TV One had National’s vote increasing to a massive 54%, with a 19% gap, while TV3 had only a 10% gap. TV One polls have a history of overestimating support for National, and as no other poll has ever put National at 54%, I am very suspicious that it is overestimated in this poll. Full poll results can be seen here. You can get a better picture by looking at a range of polls, rather than relying on one. Averaging the results (including the last Roy Morgan Poll, and deducting 2% of National and adding it to Labour from the One news poll (to cancel out bias to National) gives:
National: 49% (61 seats)
Labour: 36.5% (46 seats)
Greens: 6.2% (8 seats)
Maori Party: 3.0% (7 seats)
NZ First: 2.8%
ACT: 1.0% (1 seat)
United: 0.3% (1 overhang seat)
Progressive: 0.2% (1 overhang seat)
National, despite being as high as 49%, can barely govern with ACT and United Future. A one seat swing to labour could see a LPGM coalition. One of Nationals big problems is that altjough it is polling at stratospheric levels, it has so few coalition partners it can barely govern. The scenario above illustrates the point.

The election 7 months out

April 14, 2008

Today is 7 months and 1 day until the last day the election can be held. And hopefully 7 months and 1 day until Helen Clark and her corrupt cronies get evicted from the positions of power they have abused to steal money for their last election campaign, and then rewrite electoral finance laws for their own partisan gain this election.

However, most of the New Zealand public, are still largely uneducated about the full level of corruption within the Labour Party, and its willingness to cling to power at any cost to our democratic system, the latest manifestation of such corruption being exposed today (which I will blog about latter). Although they may be aware of the fact Labour stole $800 000+ last election for its pledge card, they probably are not aware of the fact Labour was warned three time by the Chief Electoral Officer to include the pledge card in its election expenses, which it failed to do, and thus got away with overspending. They may be aware of the Electoral Finance Act (EFA), but they probably believe it helped end secret donations, instead of allowing them to continue as “protected donations”. I believe that if everyone in New Zealand knew the full truth about the pledge card and Electoral Finance Act, Labour would be polling under 20%, if not worse.

However, since the beginning of the year, Labour has made a long serries of policy anouncements, ranging from a tagging crackdown, raising the school leaving age to 18, keeping Auckland Airport in New Zealand US hedge fund hands, and other areas, and this diverted attention from the EFA. Labour has, partly from more discipline and partly better luck, managed (with the exception of the Owen Glenn story) to keep bad news stories (many of which were self inflicted) like the EFA, Taito Phillip Field, David Benson Pope, Trevor Mallard punching Tau Henare and so forth of the front pages, and time has passed since the Anti-smacking Bill turned many voters of Labour. This is reflected in the latest poll.

The Roy Morgan Poll which came out on Friday, has the following results:
National 47% (54 seats, down from previous polls, but still strong)
ACT 1.5% (2 seats, Roger Douglas coming to them has helped)
United Future 0.5% (1 seat, strugling to avoid overhang)
Total centre-right 49% and 57 seats (by centre-right I mean National and likely coaltion partners).
Labour 34.5% (43 seats, down a bit, but with coalitions competitve)
Progressive o.5% (Jim Anderton manages to escape being an overhang)
Green 9% (this could be an overestimation, unless, as Steve Pierson suggests in the Standard comments, they have gained a bounce from opposing the FTA. 11 seats if they are really on 9%)
Maori Party 3% (7 seats if they win all Maori seats, creating an 4 seat overhang, and thus hold the balance of power).
Total centre-left (defined as Labour plus likely coalition partners) 47%, but 62 seats, helped out of course by the overhang which makes life difficult for National.

This poll confirms what I and Labour already know. Labour can still win a forth term. National can not rely on Labour making mistakes to win (and had Labour not introduced the EFA or supported the Anti-smacking Bill, the polls would be very different), but must rely on making its own success, by releasing good policy and selling it well, and educating the public more about the EFA and pledge card. This is not to say Labour will win, it still has big challenges in front of it, and must shake of the perception that is destined to loose, is tired out of ideas and on its way out, but it can still win.

The election is still competitive, and if we want a change of government we will need to campaign hard for it.

The overhang

March 10, 2008

As I’ve said in a few posts before the Maori Party could have a big overhang at the next Parliament, and this could be crucial when it comes to forming a government after the election. Today a new Roy Morgan poll came out, giving National 62 seats with 49.5%, and Labour 44 on 35%. Nothing exceptional about this poll. But say between now and the election there is a 2% swing to Labour from National. The new seat figures (asuming the Maori Party win all seven Maori seats) are:
National 59 (47.5%)
Labour 46 (37%)
Greens 9 (7%)
Maori Party 7 (2%, 3 overhang seats)
Act 1 (1 seat)
Progressives and United Future (0.5% and 1 seat each)
National with Act and United Future gather 49.5% of the vote and 61 seats (usually enough to govern). Labour with the Progressive Party, Greens and Maori Party gather 46.5% of the vote but 63 seats, 4 of which come from the overhang. Labour (barring an unlikely National-Maori Party deal) get to govern, despite being over 10% behind National, and the coalition as a whole 2% behind National.

This is a very real possibility. David Farrar has a good post on that possibility. The first consequence would be to undermine MMP. I would even go as far as saying it could lead to the end of MMP. It would fatally undermine the main reason for introducing MMP to make Parliament more proportional. The other consequence suggested by Farrar. A Labour government elected under such circumstances would have no electoral mandate, although Helen won’t care so long as she is in power.

The other possibility that Farrar states is the possiblity of major parties creating two seperate parties, an electorate vote party and party vote party, leading to supplementary member style electoral system of around 190 politicians. I find this possibility unlikley, and there is nothing stopping this happening today. Whats more likely is that if the Maori Party entrenches its hold on the Maori seats, which are gradually increased in number each census, and they continue to preform badly in the party vote, the Maori party could hold the balance of power in perpetuity. Not a good outcome for New Zealand.

More good polls

March 4, 2008

These polls are actually slightly good for Labour, as they actually put it above 35%. There has just been a TV3 poll and a NZ Herald Digipoll. The results of these two polls averaged out are as follows (for the seats calculation I assume no general electorates change hands, National wins the new seat of botany and the Maori Party win all Maori seats):
National 52.75% (65 seats- can govern alone)
Labour 35.75% (44 seats)
Greens 5.7% (7 seats)
NZ First 2.55% no seats
Maori Party 1.75% (7 seats, 5 overhang)
Act 0.7% (1 seat)
United 0.45% (1 seat, lucky to avoid an overhang)
Progressive 0.05% (1 overhang seat)
Note the impact of the Maori Party overhang on making National’s majority only 2 seats. A 4% swing to Labour could see it back into Government. The Maori Party winning all Maori seats creating a big overhang, as I said yesterday, could create real problems for National.

Colin Espiner believes part of the reason for Labour’s poor poling maybe the costs of food, petrol, and electricity increasing, together with rising interest rates putting the squeeze on household budgets. This may be the case, and if so it is unfair to Labour as it has no control over these things. However, I still look forward to Labour loosing the election, no matter what reason people choose to vote them out. David Farrar has the latest public poll summary, and you can see that National has led Labour consistently since the beginning of last year, so National’s current good polling is stable and clearly not the result of a one of occurrence, like its post Orewa speech bounce was, and thus is more likely to last. However, there is still 8 months to go until the election, and Labour will come out with every bribe and dirty trick it can to win the election, and a lot can happen during that time, so although we can be confident National is more likely to win than Labour, we can not be certain of a National win.

I’m back again

February 26, 2008

Hi readers (if there are any left), its been three months since I last posted on this blog, largely due to not being at uni, where my Internet access is, and spending time working and other things. But now its an election year, and I’m back at university, and I’m back blogging.

The latest polls should be very pleasing to any right wing conservative New Zealander. In the last few days we have a Colmar Brunton poll giving National a 19 point lead. We also have a Roy Morgan poll which also has National 19 points ahead. Even better still a Fairfax media-Neilson poll has an astonishing 23 point gap. And as David Farrar points out, these polls occured before the Owen Glenn story.

Lets now take a look at what would be the case if the election was now, instead of 7 months away. A realistic future parliament (by averaging the results of these polls and asuming no electorate seats change hands, and National wins the new seat of Botany) a future Parliament would look like this:
National 67 (asuming National stands candidates in all General electorates and 5 list only candidates, all except one candidate will be elected)
Labour 41 (good punishment for the Electoral Finance Act)
Greens 8 (up 2, but won’t matter much)
Maori Party 4 (including one overhang, two if they get an extra electorate seat, which is possible if Maori are amongst those deserting Labour, and especially if Turei (Green) doesn’t stand in Te Tai Tonga)
United Future, ACT, Progressive 1 each (both Dunne and Anderton as overhangs)

National of course won’t need any coalition partners.

National polling well

August 30, 2007

Two new polls have come oput recently, a NZ Herald DigiPoll, and a Roy Morgan. Here are the results averaged out:
National 50.4%
Labour (this is no joke) 33.9%
Greens 6.5%
NZ First 3.4%
Maori Party 2.65%
Act 1.2%
United Future 1%
Progressive 0.25%.

If those were the election results, and all electorate seats styed the same, our new Parliament would look like this (figures in brackets are those if NZ First wins an electorate):
National 63 (62) enough to govern alone in both cases.
Labour 43 (41) quite a lot more retirements are needed to stop sitting MPs loosing their seats.
Greens 8 (8)
NZ Fisrt 0 (4)
Maori Party 4 (4) one being an overhang in both occasions.
Act 2 (1)
United Future 1 (1)
Progressive 1 (1) being an overhang.

These results look promising. However don’t count votes before they are cast. Remember that it is still a year before the elction, and there were polls with national on 10 point plus leads only a few months before the last election. A large part of national’s support is still soft.